The vast uncertainty surrounding the possible spread of COVID-19 and the duration of the near-economic standstill required to combat it make forecasting little different from guessing. By Carmen Reinhart and Carmen M. Reinhart. New York University The COVID-19 pandemic poses a once-in-a-generation threat to the world’s population. ", Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. She became the subject of general news coverage when mathematical errors were found in a research paper she co-authored. She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. ", Reinhart, Carmen, and Vincent Reinhart. 9:00 EST | 14:00 GMT . She has testified before Congress and is listed among Foreign Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers, Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds, and Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance. Federal Reserve Bank of New York (nonremunerated) [20][21], A review by Herndon, Ash, and Pollin of her widely cited paper with Rogoff, "Growth in a Time of Debt", argued that "coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics lead to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period". [7], On May 20, 2020, Reinhart was appointed World Bank Chief Economist, starting on June 15, 2020.[8]. [1] After her B.A., Reinhart worked for her master's degree in Philosophy, eventually receiving this degree in 1981 from Columbia University. Pro-austerity forces here and elsewhere in the world have seized upon the … It has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award. Her work is featured in the financial press, including The Economist,[12] Newsweek,[13] The Washington Post,[14] and The Wall Street Journal. She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. They settled in Pasadena, California, during the early years before moving to South Florida, where she grew up. Professor Reinhart held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. Nikkei She serves in the Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and was a member of the Congressional Budget Office Panel of Economic Advisors. However, we recognize that such engagement can raise questions about perceived and potential conflicts of interest, so we disclose publicly the key professional activities of our faculty outside the Kennedy School. It has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award, among others. ", https://www.facebook.com/harvardkennedyschool/, https://www.linkedin.com/school/harvard-kennedy-school-of-government/, https://www.youtube.com/user/HarvardKennedySchool, http://instagram.com/harvardkennedyschool/. * The thesis of the book is that when a government has a debt-to-GDP ratio above 90 percent, it is terrible for economic growth. Based on publications and scholarly citations, Reinhart is ranked among the top economists worldwide according to Research Papers in Economics (RePec). To better understand how to solve public problems by improving policy and leadership, we engage directly with policymakers, public leaders, governments, nonprofit organizations, and for-profit businesses whose activities affect those problems. 197-2010, 2018. Washington: The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. [14] Her book (with Kenneth Rogoff), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, studied the striking similarities of the recurring booms and busts that have characterized financial history. According to Research Papers in Economics (RePec). How Innovation Can Help End Forced Labor in Global Supply Chains . Browse all articles written by Carmen Reinhart for Foreign Affairs. When the family moved to Miami, Reinhart started college at two-year Miami Dade College, before transferring to Florida International University, where she received a B.A. 10 Indeed, this is the central argument in Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart (2010) originally published in November 17, 2008). She received her Ph.D. from Columbia University. : Humus The Proud Location: Northern Palouse. Project Syndicate The Big Picture: Global Credit Themes in 2021. [22][23][24], Reinhart met her husband, Vincent Reinhart, when they were classmates at Columbia University in the late 1970s. Harvard Kennedy School is proud of its energetic involvement in the world. The authors also followed up with a couple of papers arguing the same thing. in Economics (summa cum laude) in 1975. "The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008." Mar 23, 2020 Carmen M. Reinhart. Carmen Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. 3 Add to Bookmarks. [1] After Reinhart passed her field examinations, she was hired as an economist by Bear Stearns and rose to the investment bank's chief economist three years later. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Published Version . ", Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper No. Wikimedia Commons During their analysis, Herndon, Ash and Pollin obtained the actual spreadsheet that Reinhart and Rogoff … CARMEN M. REINHART is vice president and chief economist of the World Bank Group. [7][19] Rogoff and Reinhart claimed that their fundamental conclusions were accurate, despite the errors. From 2001 to 2003, she returned to the International Monetary Fund as deputy director at the Research Department. She is also a member of American Economic Association, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association,[6] and the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy. In 2010, a pair of Harvard economists published a paper that confirmed the warnings of the global austerity movement. ", Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. [10][15] Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. By Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart. Journal of the European Economic Association 14.1 (February 2016): 215–251. Washington Speakers Bureau [18], In 2013, Reinhart and Rogoff were in the spotlight after researchers discovered that their 2010 paper "Growth in a Time of Debt" in The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings had methodological and computational errors. She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department. by Guest Blogger for Women Around the World. [1] In 1988 she returned to Columbia to obtain her Ph.D. under the supervision of Robert Mundell. Carmen M. Reinhart University of Maryland In estimating the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, Hall finds that, when one takes account of time aggregation, point estimates are small and not significantly different from zero. Washington: The World Bank named Harvard University professor Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping an expert in the history of debt and financial crises as the global economy suffers its deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Please help by adding references that support its inclusion, or remove the category if none exist. The appointment is effective June 15, President David Malpass said in a statement Wednesday. Peterson Institute for International Economics, "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems", "Professor Carmen Reinhart Joins Harvard Kennedy School Faculty", "Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs", "Carmen Reinhart Appointed as World Bank Group Chief Economist", "They Did Their Homework (800 Years of It)", "Romer roundtable: Debt will keep growing", "Don't Buy the Chirpy Forecasts: The history of banking crises indicates this one may be far from over", "Playing Down the Price Tag of the Fiscal Stimulus", Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, "What Did We Learn from the Financial Crisis, the Great Recession, and the Pathetic Recovery?,", "How Much Unemployment Was Caused by Reinhart and Rogoff's Arithmetic Mistake? "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015." Media: Economist, Financial Times, Macro Musings podcast Tax Reform and the Political Economy of the Tax Base, Journal of Public Economics, 164, pp. Agenda . The president of the European Community recognises that the political will for public sector cost-cutting is exhausted, the IMF now suggests the chancellor find a plan B, and an investigation into the data reveals one of the intellectual underpinnings of austerity to be the result of arithmetic and coding errors. Princeton University Press, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System, Copyright © 2020 The President and Fellows of, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy, Taubman Center for State and Local Government, Reinhart, Carmen. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. [1] They have one son. In both 2011 and 2012, she was included in the 50 Most Influential ranking of Bloomberg Markets. Although this is not the first disease outbreak to spread around the globe, it is the first one that governments have so fiercely combated. Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. Outside of Reinhart's professional activities, she has received compensation for conference-related and speaking engagements, advisory boards, as well as writing and royalties. She has served on the editorial boards of The American Economic Review, the Journal of International Economics, International Journal of Central Banking, among others. And because of this debt, the normal tools of tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending were somewhat less available and/or politically difficult to achieve. graduate teaching at FIU,[10] Reinhart in 1978 went on to attend Columbia University graduate school. Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. She has been listed among Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance, Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, and Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds. In addition to my position as a faculty member at Harvard, I am occasionally compensated for my participation in outside activities, such a speaking engagements, conference participation, reviewing, writing/editing articles or reports, royalties, consulting, and serving on panels/advisory boards. Leigh Bureau Learn more in our new issue. [17], Fellow economist Alan Blinder credits both Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff with describing highly relevant aspects of the 2008 financial institution near-meltdown and resulting serious recession. Skip to main content Can American Recover? [3] and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. Clearly, this is a “whatever-it-takes” moment for large-scale, outside-the-box fiscal and monetary policies. Welcome Address by Alastair Wilson, Managing Director, Global Sovereign ‍ 9:05 EST | 14:05 GMT . (Bloomberg Markets) -- When Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published their heavyweight history of financial crises in late 2009, the title was ironic. [18], Recovery from what Blinder terms a Reinhart-Rogoff recession may require debt forgiveness, either directly or implicitly, by encouraging somewhat higher than normal rates of inflation. Restructuring Argentina’s Private Debt is Essential. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (2009). "Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath." "The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008. Kenneth Rogoff, and Carmen Reinhart. Dear Austerity Mavens... Post by kalm » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:28 pm...you're doing it wrong. Reinhart is ranked among the top economists worldwide, based on publications and scholarly citations. A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff", "The spreadsheet error in Reinhart and Rogoff's famous paper on debt sustainability", "Researchers Finally Replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems", Learn how and when to remove this template message, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Carmen_Reinhart&oldid=991266962, University of Maryland College of Behavioral and Social Sciences people, University of Maryland, College Park faculty, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from September 2020, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Pages using infobox economist as a module, Wikipedia articles with BIBSYS identifiers, Wikipedia articles with CANTIC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with SUDOC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with WORLDCATID identifiers, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Subsequently, she spent several years at the International Monetary… Assuming this role on June 15, 2020, Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. are Fiscal Multipliers? During wars, governments finance their war expenditures however they can, and right now there are dire needs.” “The scenario we are in is not a sustainable one,” she added. COVID-19 Poses the Greatest Challenge Yet to the U.N. Humanitarian System. Foreign Affairs 97.6 (November/December 2018): 84–97. "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention. He concludes that the elasticity is unlikely to be much above 0.1 and may well be zero. Globalization was first thrown into reverse with the arrival of the Trump administration in 2016. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly reminded readers that the catastrophic 2008-09 … 15639 January 2010, Revised January 2010 JEL No. Moreover, since interest rates were already near zero, the standard monetary tool of lowering rates was not going to provide much help. [9], Recommended by Peter Montiel, an M.I.T. [18], In a normal recession such as 1991 or 2000, the Keynesian tools of tax cuts and infrastructure spending (fiscal stimulus), and lowered interest rates (monetary stimulus), will usually right the economic ship in a matter of months and lead to recovery and economic expansion. Open borders seem to facilitate the spread of infection. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff wrote a wildly influential book four years ago called This Time Is Different. May 15, 2020 Carmen M. Reinhart & Rob Subbaraman urge governments to cooperate on addressing supply-chain disruptions and refrain from protectionist measures. 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